Under the continuous impact of the Delta mutant strain epidemic, the recovery of the global manufacturing industry is slowing down, and some areas have even stalled. The epidemic has always disturbed the economy. “The epidemic can’t be controlled and the economy can’t rise” is by no means alarmist. The intensification of the epidemic in important raw material supplies and manufacturing processing bases in Southeast Asia, the prominent side effects of stimulus policies in various countries, and the continuous surge in global shipping prices have become the “stuck neck” factors of the current global manufacturing recovery, and the threat to the global manufacturing recovery has increased sharply.
On September 6, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing reported that the global manufacturing PMI in August was 55.7%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and the month-on-month decline for three consecutive months. It has fallen to 56 for the first time since March 2021. %the following. From the perspective of different regions, the manufacturing PMI of Asia and Europe has declined to varying degrees from the previous month. The manufacturing PMI of the Americas was the same as last month, but the overall level was lower than the average of the second quarter. Previously, data released by the market research agency IHS Markit also showed that the manufacturing PMI of many Southeast Asian countries continued to be in a contraction range in August, and the local economy was severely affected by the epidemic, which may have a greater impact on the global supply chain.
The continuous recurrence of the epidemic is the main factor in the current slowdown in the global manufacturing recovery. In particular, the impact of the Delta mutant strain epidemic on Southeast Asian countries is still continuing, causing difficulties for the recovery of the manufacturing industries in these countries. Some analysts pointed out that some countries in Southeast Asia are important raw material supply and manufacturing processing bases in the world. From the textile industry in Vietnam, to chips in Malaysia, to automobile factories in Thailand, they occupy an important position in the global manufacturing supply chain. The country continues to be plagued by the epidemic, and production cannot be recovered effectively, which is bound to have a serious negative impact on the global manufacturing supply chain. For example, the insufficient supply of chips in Malaysia has forced the closure of the production lines of many automakers and electronic product manufacturers around the world.
Compared with Southeast Asia, the recovery of the European and American manufacturing industries is slightly better, but the growth momentum has stagnated, and the side effects of the ultra-loose policy have become more obvious. In Europe, the manufacturing PMI of Germany, France, the United Kingdom and other countries all declined in August compared with the previous month. Although the US manufacturing industry was relatively stable in the short term, it was still significantly lower than the average level in the second quarter, and the recovery momentum was also slowing down. Some analysts pointed out that the ultra-loose policies in Europe and the United States continue to push up inflation expectations, and price increases are being transmitted from the production sector to the consumption sector. European and American monetary authorities have repeatedly emphasized that “inflation is only a temporary phenomenon.” However, due to the severe rebound of the epidemic in Europe and the United States, inflation may take longer than expected.
The factor of skyrocketing global shipping prices cannot be ignored. Since the beginning of this year, the bottleneck problem of the international shipping industry has been prominent, and the shipping prices have continued to skyrocket. As of September 12, the shipping prices of China/Southeast Asia—West Coast of North America and China/Southeast Asia—East Coast of North America have exceeded US$20,000/FEU (40-foot standard container). As more than 80% of the world’s trade in goods is transported by sea, the skyrocketing seaborne prices not only affects the global supply chain, but also pushes up global inflation expectations. The price increase has even made the international shipping industry cautious. On September 9, local time, CMA CGM, the world’s third largest container carrier, suddenly announced that it would freeze the spot market prices of transported goods, and other shipping giants also announced to follow up. Some analysts pointed out that the production chain in Europe and the United States is at a semi-stop due to the epidemic situation and the super-loose stimulus policies in Europe and the United States have greatly increased the demand for consumer goods and industrial products in Europe and the United States, which has become a major factor in pushing up global shipping prices.
Post time: Oct-18-2021